McCain moves into lead 48-47 in one day polling

Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Almost two days worth of the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

At a rally today in Virgina John McCain told the crowd, "We need to win Virginia on the fourth of November. With your help we're going to win".

Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, yet polls show Obama leading in the state. McCain contended Obama would seek tax increases as president, and he issued a familiar declaration contrasting himself and his foe: "He's running for redistributor in chief, I'm running for commander in chief."

McCain ally Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina, accused Obama of spending more time writing his memoirs and running for president than serving in the Senate.

"He's got a new book out. 'How I Stood up to the Left,'" Graham said as he introduced McCain. "It's in the fiction section and it's a very quick read."

McCain was headed to a rally in northern Virginia before flying to New York, where he was scheduled to appear on "Saturday Night Live" with host Ben Affleck, an Obama supporter. McCain had eight states on his final three-day itinerary, which ends with a midnight rally Monday in Arizona — where Obama was running television ads.

"We want to win everywhere," Obama said of his decision to air commercials in his opponent's state.

Like McCain, Obama was focusing his efforts in the campaign's final weekend almost completely on states won by President Bush in 2004, a sign of the Democrat's perceived broad support.

An Associated Press-Yahoo News poll of likely voters put Obama ahead, 51 to 43, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. But one in seven voters, 14 percent of the total — said they were undecided or might yet change their minds.

Obama planned final get-out-the-vote rallies in Nevada, Colorado and Missouri for Saturday. He was to campaign in Ohio all day Sunday, including a Cleveland rally with singer Bruce Springsteen, then hit Virginia and Florida on election eve.

"We are four days away from changing the United States of America," Obama told voters Friday night in Indiana, one of about a half-dozen Republican states that remain up for grabs.

McCain's campaign argued that the Arizona senator was closing the gap in the final days and was closer than reflected in public polling. Privately, McCain's aides said he trailed Obama by 4 points nationwide in internal polling.

In Florida, another Bush state teetering between the candidates this year, McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, said the Republican nominee was the only candidate who can keep taxes low, fix the economy and win the war in Iraq. Calling Obama's economic plan "phony," she promised senior citizens that McCain would protect Social Security and "not cut a single Medicare benefit."

Obama goes prime-time

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama plunked down $4 million for a campaign-closing television ad Wednesday night and summoned voters to "choose hope over fear and unity over division" in Tuesday's election. Republican John McCain derided the event as a "gauzy, feel-good commercial," paid for with broken promises.

"America, the time for change has come," Obama said in the final moments of the unusual ad, a blend of videotaped moments and a live appearance before thousands in Sunrise, Fla.

"In six days we can choose an economy that rewards work and creates jobs and fuels prosperity starting with the middle class," Obama said.

The 30-minute ad, aired on CBS, NBC, Fox and several cable networks, came days from the end of a race in which Obama holds the lead in polls nationally and in most key battleground states as he bids to become the first black president.

And while it is unusual for candidates to acknowledge the possibility of defeat, Republican running mate Sarah Palin said she intended to remain a national figure even if the ticket loses next week. "I'm not doin' this for naught," she told ABC News in an interview.

Republicans and even some Democrats said the race was tightening as it neared the end. Although Obama made no mention of McCain in his paid television ad, both men sharpened their rhetoric during the day.

McCain, in Florida, argued that Obama lacks "what it takes to protect America from terrorists" as he sought to shift attention away from the economy.

"The question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida and the other great threats in the world," he said. "He has given no reason to answer in the affirmative."

Obama, in North Carolina, said if, "Sen. McCain is elected, 100 million Americans will not get a tax cut ... your health care benefits will get taxed for the first time in history ... we'll have another president who wants to privatize part of your Social Security."

For weeks now, the race has tilted Obama's way as the two men traverse traditionally Republican states — Obama angling for a sizable triumph and McCain hoping to win the White House in a close finish.

Associated Press-GfK polls taken within the past several days showed Obama ahead in four states that supported President Bush in 2004 and essentially even with McCain in two others. A separate survey suggested even McCain's home state of Arizona was not safely in his column.

The 30-minute campaign commercial, purchased at a cost that campaign aides put at roughly $4 million, not only marked Obama's attempt to seal his case with the electorate, but also underscored his enormous financial advantage in the race. He has outraised McCain by far after first committing — and then reneging — on a pledge to limit spending to the $84 million available under federal matching funds.

Obama used his commercial to pledge a rescue plan for the middle class in tough times. "I will not be a perfect president," he said. "But I can promise you this — I will always tell you what I think and where I stand."

Across 30 minutes, the ad blended views of Obama speaking in a setting that resembled the Oval Office, at the Democratic National Convention and elsewhere as well as scenes of Americans discussing their economic and health care troubles. His wife, Michelle, and his two daughters had cameos, and there were photos of his black father from Kenya and white mother from Kansas.

McCain sought to blunt Obama's campaign-closing pitch, lacking the funds to match it.

"He's got a few things he wants to sell you: He's offering government-run health care ... an energy plan guaranteed to work without drilling ... and an automatic wealth spreader that folds neatly and fits under any bed," McCain told an audience in Florida.

The Republican National committee on Wednesday unveiled a new ad that seeks to raise doubts about Obama's lack of executive experience. The ad will begin airing Thursday in Ohio, Indiana, Virginia and Florida markets.

"Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?" an announcer says. "Can you hand your nation to a man who has never been in charge of anything? Can you wait while he learns?"

Earlier in the campaign, former Democratic rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as well as McCain sought to raise doubts about Obama's relatively thin resume on foreign policy and national security matters.

In response, Obama traveled last summer to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe, where he met with world leaders. Later, he tapped Sen. Joseph Biden, who has long experience in foreign policy, as his vice presidential running mate.

More recently, he won an endorsement from former Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Conversely, McCain has slumped in the polls as the economic crisis has unfolded in the past several weeks.

Speaking to reporters Wednesday, he said the economic meltdown, while serious, was temporary, and the nation would emerge stronger.

Besides Obama, he criticized the Democratic leaders of Congress, who hope to command larger majorities in the new House and Senate than they do now.

"We're getting only a glimpse of what one-party rule will look like," he said, predicting deep cuts in defense spending and efforts to shrink America's role in the world if Democrats take over the government.

"Let there be no confusion about the threats we face," said McCain. "I've had to make some defining choices along the way," he added in what seemed to be a reference to his time in the Navy, more than five years of which were spent as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

Obama blended his sharp rhetoric with a more humorous approach as he sought to fend off McCain's charge that his tax policies amount to socialism.

McCain, he said, will soon "be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten."

McCain says racism will barely affect election

In a transcript of an interview taped for broadcast Wednesday night on CNN's "Larry King Live," McCain said people will vote "for the best of reasons, not the worst of reasons." He said most people will vote based on who they want to lead the country.

Referring to people who might vote against Democrat Barack Obama because he is black, McCain added: "It would be a tiny, tiny, minority. Because people are hurting too much now. I mean, they're worried about staying in their homes, keeping their jobs."

The sharp economic downturn and calamity in the financial industry has become the campaign's dominant issue.

McCain also repudiated a suggestion by conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh that Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama was because both men are black. Powell is a Republican and served President Bush as secretary of state.

"I reject it," he said of Limbaugh's statement. "Look, there is racism in America. We all know that because we can't stop working against it. But I am totally convinced that 99 and 44 one-hundredths percent of the American people are going to make a decision on who is best to lead this country."

McCain's comments came six days before Election Day. Polls show only small percentages of people saying the race of the candidates will be a factor in their vote, but analysts and political professionals will be watching the results for evidence of any role racial attitudes may play.

In the interview, the Arizona senator also said he was surprised at how controversial his vice presidential running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, has become. Though she is a major star among Republicans and conservatives, many Democrats and some independents find her polarizing. And, in many polls, she is disliked by as many or more people as like her.

"You know, I didn't think she would be so controversial," McCain said. "But I got to tell you, every time I'm around her, I'm uplifted. This is a solid, dedicated, reformer. A fine governor."

He said he had "total" confidence in Palin should she have to handle a crisis like an attack on the United States.

"She has the instincts, she shares my world view," McCain said, adding that she understands national security issues. "She understands them very well. And frankly, with a lot of conversations that I've had with her, she's (an) incredibly quick study," he said.

Also in the interview, McCain:

_Acknowledged friction between some of his advisers and Palin's but called it "nonsense" and said his relationship with Palin was fine.

_Said he does not believe Obama is a socialist but that he has been "in the far left of American politics." McCain and Palin have accused Obama of supporting socialistic tax policies that would redistribute the nation's wealth.

_Said he supported the Federal Reserve's half-percent interest rate cut and said the key to spurring the economy will be restoring the housing market.

Earlier in the day, McCain said the country's economic problems will pass but threats against the nation will not — and he said Obama is not up to the task of protecting the United States.

Returning to the issue of national security, seen as McCain's strongest asset before the financial crisis overwhelmed the campaign, McCain stood with former military officers and national security advisers to ask rhetorically whether Obama had the wisdom and judgment to be commander in chief.

"The question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida and the other great threats in the world," McCain said. "He has given no reason to answer in the affirmative."

McCain also warned of the danger to national security from a Democratic takeover of both the White House and Congress. He predicted deep cuts in defense spending and abandonment of America's role in the world if Democrats run the government.

McCain spent Wednesday campaigning for Florida's 27 electoral votes, a key to his ability to muster the 270 needed to win the White House.

He discussed economic issues in meeting with business executives in West Palm Beach. He pledged to protect savings and retirement accounts, and create millions of "high-paying jobs" through tax cuts.

Obama leads or tied in 8 crucial states

Barack Obama now leads in four states won by President Bush in 2004 and is essentially tied with John McCain in two other Republican red states, according to new AP-GfK battleground polling.

The results help explain why the Democrat is pressing his money and manpower advantages in a slew of traditionally GOP states, hoping not just for a win but a transcendent victory that remakes the nation's political map. McCain is scrambling to defend states where he wouldn't even be campaigning if the race were closer.

Less than a week before Election Day, the AP-GfK polls show Obama winning among early voters, favored on almost every issue, benefiting from the country's sour mood and widely viewed as the winning candidate by voters in eight crucial states — Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

"If you believe in miracles," said GOP consultant Joe Gaylord of Arlington, Va., "you still believe in McCain."

Despite a mounting chorus of Republicans predicting their nominee's demise, McCain aides insist their internal surveys show victory is still within reach.

Indeed, polls are mere snapshots of highly fluid campaigns, and this race has been unusually volatile. McCain was written off prematurely last year, and Obama seemed poised for victory in New Hampshire's Democratic primary just before Hillary Rodham Clinton thumped him.

Even this close to Election Day, racial tensions and the numbers of late-deciding voters identified by the AP-GfK polling leave room for doubt. But the surveys confirm what McCain aides acknowledge privately — their chances of winning are low.

The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Obama can earn 252 by merely reclaiming states won by John Kerry in 2004. There are only two Kerry states still in contention — Pennsylvania with 21 votes and New Hampshire with four — and AP-GfK polls show Obama leading both by double digits.

Ohio alone has 20 electoral votes. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9 and Virginia 13.

In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling, two vote-rich states Bush carried in 2004. Obama is throwing his time and money into the Sunshine State, which has 27 votes, part of a strategy to create many routes to victory and push toward a landslide of 300 or more electoral votes. North Carolina has 15 votes.

Independent polling suggests that New Mexico and Iowa, two traditionally GOP states, are out of reach for McCain. Other red states may be creeping away from him and into contention, including Montana.

The bottom line: McCain must overtake Obama in the many red states where he is trailing or tied — a tall order. Or he needs to gain some breathing room by winning Pennsylvania, where he trails by 12 percentage points, according to the AP-GfK poll.

Many of his own supporters say the race is all but over.

"I get the sense it's shutting down," said Tom Rath, a GOP consultant in New Hampshire where McCain trails by 18 points.

He added, "Where there's a week, there's hope."

A couple of factors might cut McCain's way.

First, there are still a good number of voters are open to changing their minds — from as low as 4 percent in Nevada to 14 percent in New Hampshire.

Second, the impact of race is a hard-to-measure factor as Obama seeks to become the nation's first black president.

In three states — North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania — the number of white Democrats who said the word "violent" described most blacks hit double digits in the polling.

In those same states, Obama was having trouble winning over white Democrats — 20 percent of them in North Carolina said they were voting for McCain; 12 percent in Florida and 8 percent in Pennsylvania.

A senior GOP aide in Congress, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid angering his presidential nominee, said McCain's advisers are being asked by some Republican leaders to focus the candidate's travel on states with close Senate races — essentially abandoning his White House ambitions to help re-elect GOP senators.

But it's Obama who may have coattails. Democrats lead the Senate races in Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia, according to AP-GfK polls. In North Carolina, GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole is essentially tied with state Sen. Kay Hagan.

In all four of those Senate races, the Democratic candidate leads among early voters, a sign of a strong ground game driven by the top of the ticket. Obama easily outpaces McCain among early voters, holding about a 2-1 advantage in six of the states.

Obama is favored on almost every issue in every state, the polling says:

_Voters in all eight states gave him the highest marks on whom they trust to fix the economy and improve health care.

_Even on the question of "who would make the right decision about national security," typically a strong suit for McCain, Obama holds a slight lead in Nevada and is running even against his GOP rival in Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

_By large margins, voters in each of the eight states consider Obama the likely winner Tuesday.

_Voters in each state believe McCain has run a far more negative campaign.

The political landscape tilts against McCain. Just 8 percent of voters in New Hampshire think the country is headed in the right direction. Three-quarters of voters in Pennsylvania disapprove of Bush's job performance. Nine in 10 voters in North Carolina are worried about the economy.

"People will vote for change, and Barack Obama represents that change," said Gaylord, the GOP consultant in Virginia. Speaking of McCain, he said: "And try as he will — and he has — to be the candidate of change, he could not. He could not overcome the weight of George Bush's failed policies."

The AP-GfK Battleground State Poll was conducted from Oct. 22-26 in eight states. It involved interviews by landline telephone with likely voters in each state, ranging from 600 in Florida and New Hampshire to 628 in Nevada. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points in Colorado and Nevada, and 4 points in the other states.

McCain guarantees victory

“I guarantee you that two weeks from now, you will see this has been a very close race, and I believe that I'm going to win it,” McCain told interim "Meet" moderator Tom Brokaw. “We're going to do well in this campaign, my friend. We're going to win it, and it's going to be tight, and we're going to be up late.”

McCain spoke amid signs of a tightening race, and reports of renewed determination among his staff, which is badly outgunned in both money and manpower.

Reuters reported that Obama's lead has dropped over the last three days after hitting a high of 12 points on Thursday. Pollster John Zogby said: "Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama's are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy."

The Washington Post reported Sunday: "[I]nside the McCain campaign the mood remains one of gritty resolve. Top aides know they are behind, but they hold out hope and, like their candidate, stubbornly refuse to give up."

McCain told Brokaw in Waterloo, Iowa, that he feels "like Knute Rockne ... go out there and get one for the Gipper."

“We are very competitive in battleground states," McCain said. "Obviously, I choose to trust my senses as well as polls. The enthusiasm at almost all of our [events] is at a higher level than I've ever seen, and I've been in a lot of presidential campaigns, usually as the warm-up act. ... And I see intensity out there, and I see passion. So we're very competitive.”

McCain added: “We're going to have to just get out our vote, work hard over the next nine days, and make sure that people know that there'll be a better future. People are very worried now — very, very worried, and have every reason to be. I think it's all about who can assure a better future.”

On the endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) by former Secretary of State Colin Powell, McCain said: "I'm disappointed in Gen. Powell, but I'm very, very happy to know that [I'm endorsed by] five former secretaries of states who I admire enormously.”

McCain defended Republican National Committee clothing purchases on behalf of his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Politico revealed during the past week that the RNC spent $150,000 on designer outfits at Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue for the vice presidential nominee and members of her family.

"She lives a frugal life,” he said. “She and her family are not wealthy. She and her family were thrust into this and there was some — and some third of that money is given back. The rest will be donated to charity. ... She is a role model to millions and millions and millions of Americans."

McCain appeared in a gracious mood, saying to Brokaw at the end: "I appreciate your many years of informing the American people. You've come a long way from South Dakota, but you have never forgotten where you come from.”

Presidential Polls: Obama lead drops to 5 points in U.S. race

Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 44 percent among likely U.S. voters in the daily tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points. Obama's lead has dropped over the last three days after hitting a high of 12 points on Thursday.

"Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama's are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy," pollster John Zogby said.

Obama, 47, took the lead in most national polls in recent weeks as the financial crisis and plunging stock market seized center stage ahead of the Nov. 4 election.

McCain, 72, appeared slow to respond to Obama's financial message but in recent days has ramped up the economic themes of his own campaign. On Saturday the Arizona Republican warned voters of the dangers of what he termed a Democratic take-over in both the White House and Congress.

Obama has countered by seeking to link McCain's proposals to the policies of outgoing Republican President George W. Bush, who fares very poorly in public approval surveys.

Obama's lead among voters making less than $35,000 per year remains substantial at a little over 70 percent. But McCain, who had previously scored well only with the highest income brackets, now holds slight leads among voters in all income groups starting at $35,000 and above.

"You've got to think that it is tax-and-spend that concerns them. Is McCain starting to connect with the middle class?" Zogby said.

Obama still had solid, if slightly diminished, leads among two important groups which could play pivotal roles in the Nov. 4 election. Among independents he had a 14 point lead, down from a peak of 29 points. Women also still backed Obama by a 14-point margin, down from 20 points late last week.

McCain, who once had a 4-point deficit among male voters, now has a 4-point lead at 48-44 percent. And whites back McCain by a 12-point margin, up from 6 points on Friday.

Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr both received support from 1 percent of those polled, a slight dip for Nader. Three percent of the people said they remained undecided in the race.

The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,203 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added, while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The U.S. president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.

Obama now lead McCain by 12 points

Even not being on the trail and Obama still gaining ground on McCain. If I were McCain, I would be thinking what can I do better. Latest polls show Obama now lead McCain by 12 points.

Obama must be smiling to learn of this with only 12 more days before the presidential election. McCain on the other hand, has to be nervous with the latest poll numbers out. Time is winding down and both candidates will be traveling to key states in the upcoming days.

Obama has made steady gains over the last four days and has tripled his lead on McCain in the past week of polling.

The Illinois senator saw his lead among women -- who are expected to play a decisive role in this election -- increase to 18 points from 16 points on Wednesday.

And independent voters, who have been the target of intense campaign efforts by both sides, have now swung behind Obama by a 30-point margin, 59 percent to 29 percent.

McCain, 72, appeared to have lost the traction he won after the third and final presidential debate last week.

"Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group."

"McCain can still try to turn it around, but he has to find focus," Zogby said, adding that economic issues, which dominated the campaign amid turmoil in the credit, housing and financial markets, still seem to be working in Obama's favor.

"At some point there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy," Zogby said in a statement.

While Obama wins the backing of 86 percent of Democrats, only 81 percent of Republicans back the Arizona senator -- down from figures in the low 90s immediately after the Republican national convention in early September.

Obama holds a 6-point lead among men, 48 percent to 42 percent, while white voters -- who had been among McCain's core support groups -- now only back McCain by a 2-point margin.

Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr held relatively steady at 2 percent and 1 percent respectively. Three percent of voters said they remained undecided, unchanged from Wednesday.

The U.S. president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.

Is Sarah Palin A Drag on the Ticket?

Any comedian looking for stand-up material should look no further than Sarah Palin. I think she has all the material a stand-up or late night host would need. She just never seize to amaze us.

Vice presidential candidates may not win elections, but this year it's looking increasingly likely that Sarah Palin may help lose one.

Asked by a third-grader what a vice president does, Republican candidate Sarah Palin responded that the vice president is the president's "team mate" but also "runs the Senate" and "can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes."

It's a tremendous oversimplification of her potential duties, and many were quick to point this out. Some even insinuated that perhaps Gov. Palin doesn't even know what a VP does, while others pointed out that these were third graders, not a room of political science majors. A panel of experts wonders: Is the media being sexist?

The vice president's main duty is to replace the president if the president dies, resigns, is removed from office or can no longer carry out his or her duties for other reasons. The Constitution names the vice president as the president of the Senate but allows the vice president to cast a vote only to break a tie.

The vice president, as a member of the executive branch of the government, has no official role in developing legislation or determining how it is presented to or debated by the Senate, which is part of the legislative branch. In all meaningful ways, the leader of the majority party runs the Senate.

The subject of the vice president's duties came up as Palin sat for an interview with KUSA-TV in Denver, which has a feature called "Question from the Third Grade." The interviewer asked, "Brandon Garcia wants to know, 'What does the vice president do?'"

For the first time, she has a net-negative fav/unfav rating (38%-47%), the only principal [candidate] to carry that distinction. What's more, 55% think she's unqualified to serve as president if the need arises, which is a troublesome number given McCain's age. (Have worries about McCain's age risen because of Palin? Seems to be the case)."

Pew released its latest poll that echoes many of the NBC/WSJ's findings about voters' perceptions of Palin and their effect on McCain. Pew's headline doesn't mention Palin specifically -- "Growing Doubts About McCain's Judgment, Age and Campaign Conduct" -- but it has this telling observation in the write-up:

"Notably, opinions of Palin have a greater impact on voting intentions than do opinions of Joe Biden, Obama's running mate."
Obviously, the McCain people aren't loving this and Politico reports that the candidate himself says he's "amazed" by the reaction to his VP pick. Politico writes:

"She is a governor, the most popular governor in America," McCain said. "I think she is the most qualified of any that has run recently for vice president."

"I'm amazed. I'm amazed. Which is better? Serve 35 years in the United States Senate and say you've got to divide Iraq into three different countries, or be governor of a state and a reformer and give people their tax dollars back and bring about reform in the way that your state does business? Which is better?"

Obama has 10-point lead on McCain

According to new poll numbers, Obama's lead on McCain has increased. New numbers show his lead at 10-points. An increase of 2-points from yesterday, when he was leading by 8.

It was the third consecutive day Obama gained ground on McCain as the two begin the final sprint to the November 4 election.

"Obama just keeps growing, he has expanded his lead among almost every major voting group," said pollster John Zogby. "McCain seems to be out of steam for the moment."

Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from an 8-point advantage for Obama on Tuesday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

The 10-point lead was the first time Obama's advantage over McCain, an Arizona senator, reached double-digits in the poll. Obama's lead had floated between 2 and 6 points in the more than two weeks of polling until stretching to 8 points on Tuesday.

Obama made gains with two key swing voting blocs. His advantage with independent voters grew to a whopping 27 points from 15 points and his edge with women voters grew to 16 points from 13.

The poll, taken Sunday through Tuesday, showed independent Ralph Nader, Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Bob Barr each registering 1 percent support.

The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,208 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The poll also found that the popularity of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has fallen. Voters are less likely to see the Republican vice presidential nominee in a positive light, and much more likely to report negative feelings, the Wall Street Journal said.

Forty-seven percent view Palin negatively, compared with 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

Fifty-five percent of voters say Palin is not qualified to be president, up from 50 percent two weeks ago.

The president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.

McCain 8 points behind Obama in the polls

Barack Obama is steadily gaining momentum in the right direction, so it appears. Right now he has an 8 point lead over John McCain.

While I wouldn't say anyone is rushing to judgement, I know Obama has to like the numbers he's seeing in the polls right now. Especially after Sarah Palin got alot of buzz after her appearance on SNL.

With Nov. 4 only weeks aways, no candidate can afford not to keep an eye on the numbers in the polls. Both Obama and McCain will be out campaigning like crazy these next few weeks. The race to the White House is really starting to heat up. And the media will be in full force.

Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from a 6-point advantage for Obama on Monday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

"It was another very big day for Obama," said pollster John Zogby. "Things clearly are moving in Obama's direction."

It was the second consecutive day that Obama gained ground on McCain as the two head into the final sprint to the November 4 election.

Obama, an Illinois senator, expanded his lead among two key swing groups. His advantage with independent voters grew from 11 to 15 points, and his edge with women voters grew from 8 to 13 points.

Obama also took a lead among voters above the age of 70 and expanded his lead among Hispanics and Catholics. His support among Republicans grew from 9 percent to 12 percent a day after he received the endorsement of Republican former Secretary of State Colin Powell.

"Maybe this is the Powell effect," Zogby said. "That wasn't just an endorsement, that was a pretty powerful statement."

McCain narrowly trails Obama among men and saw his lead among whites drop from 13 points to 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. Zogby said Obama was doing better than 2004 Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry among crucial sub-groups.

This was the first time Obama has stretched his advantage over McCain, an Arizona senator, to more than 6 points since the tracking poll began more than two weeks ago. Obama's edge had been between 2 and 6 points in all 15 days of polling.

Some other tracking polls have showed the race tightening in the last few days. But with the help of his huge spending advantage, Obama has maintained an edge on McCain in key states.

The poll, taken Saturday through Monday, showed independent Ralph Nader gaining 2 percent support. Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Bob Barr each registered 1 percent support.

The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,214 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The U.S. president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.

Obama’s Inexperience Will Prompt Nations to Test us

Joe Biden is out talking today about John McCain and his policies that he doesn't see working. While out talking to reporters, Biden had alot of words for McCain and Sarah Palin.

None-the-less McCain was out firing up crowds talking about Obama and his mentioning his past quite a few times. The polls do show Obama gaining ahead despite McCain efforts to combat them.

McCain should have alot to worry about being that it shows he's now behind in the polls. When asked, he responded, "it's to earlier". Sarah Palin wasn't available for comment.

Joe Biden continues to try to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory for Barack Obama. In a stunning statement, Biden acknowledged that Obama’s lack of foreign-policy experience will provoke America’s enemies into creating an international crisis. Biden apparently thinks this is just terrific:


ABC News’ Matthew Jaffe Reports: Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., on Sunday guaranteed that if elected, Sen. Barack Obama., D-Ill., will be tested by an international crisis within his first six months in power and he will need supporters to stand by him as he makes tough, and possibly unpopular, decisions.


“Mark my words,” the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”


“I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate,” Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. “And he’s gonna need help. And the kind of help he’s gonna need is, he’s gonna need you - not financially to help him - we’re gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it’s not gonna be apparent initially, it’s not gonna be apparent that we’re right.”


Isn’t this an argument for electing someone with more experience? Why should we elect a man who will embolden our enemies and push us to the brink of disaster? Biden seems convinced that electing John McCain will make our enemies abroad much less sanguine about provoking us — which is one of the best arguments yet heard for electing McCain.


Even worse, Biden admits that an Obama administration will likely fumble the ball. “It’s not going to be apparent that we’re right.” Really? Why not? I’d say that Biden admits that Obama will deviate from long-held principles of American foreign policy and diplomacy, and expects to reap a whirlwind of disapproval because of that. Where will that be most likely to occur, given Obama’s previous political alliances with people like Rashid Khalidi?
Let’s not forget the example that Biden himself uses here. John Kennedy got tested because he met with Nikita Khrushchev with “no preconditions”. Kennedy acknowledged afterwards that it was an “unmitigated disaster“:
Kennedy’s aides convinced the press at the time that behind closed doors the president was performing well, but American diplomats in attendance, including the ambassador to the Soviet Union, later said they were shocked that Kennedy had taken so much abuse. Paul Nitze, the assistant secretary of defense, said the meeting was “just a disaster.” Khrushchev’s aide, after the first day, said the American president seemed “very inexperienced, even immature.” Khrushchev agreed, noting that the youthful Kennedy was “too intelligent and too weak.” The Soviet leader left Vienna elated — and with a very low opinion of the leader of the free world.


Kennedy’s assessment of his own performance was no less severe. Only a few minutes after parting with Khrushchev, Kennedy, a World War II veteran, told James Reston of The New York Times that the summit meeting had been the “roughest thing in my life.” Kennedy went on: “He just beat the hell out of me. I’ve got a terrible problem if he thinks I’m inexperienced and have no guts. Until we remove those ideas we won’t get anywhere with him.”


What resulted? The Berlin Wall and the Cuban missile crisis. Kennedy wound up trading strategic intel and missile installations in western Asia in exchange for Soviet withdrawal of the nuclear missiles from Cuba. The entire Kennedy administration turned out to be a foreign-policy disaster that was only overlooked because of the tragic assassination of Kennedy in Dallas in 1963.
I agree with Biden. Obama is exactly like Kennedy in this regard, and our enemies will test us by threatening our interests around the globe if we elect Obama. I’d rather avoid the problem altogether and elect a man who puts enough fear into the minds of our enemies to keep them from testing us at all.

Colin Powell Endorses Obama

After giving it lots of thought, Colin Powell has finally made his pick.
Says he's not comfortable with the direction that the GOP is headed. But not to take his pick as someone turning his back on his party.

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell announced Sunday that he will be voting for Sen. Barack Obama. "He has both style and substance. I think he is a transformational figure," Powell said on NBC's Meet the Press.

I come to the conclusion that because of his ability to inspire, because of the inclusive nature of his campaign, because he is reaching out all across America, because of who he is and his rhetorical abilities -- and you have to take that into account -- as well as his substance -- he has both style and substance," Powell said. "He has met the standard of being a successful president, being an exceptional president.

Powell said McCain has been a good friend for 25 years, but expressed disappointment in the negative tone of McCain's campaign, as well as in his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the Republican vice presidential nominee.
Now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice president," Powell said. "And so that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment that Senator McCain made."

He harshly criticized some of McCain's campaign tactics, such as the robocall campaign inflating Obama's ties to former 1960s radical Bill Ayers.

"Mr. McCain says that he's a washed up terrorist, but then why do we keep talking about him? And why do we have the robocalls going on around the country trying to suggest that because of this very, very limited relationship that Senator Obama has had with Mr. Ayers, somehow Mr. Obama is tainted. What they're trying to connect him to is some kind of terrorist feelings. And I think that's inappropriate. Now, I understand what politics is all about, I know how you can go after one another and that's good. But I think this goes too far, and I think it has made the McCain campaign look a little narrow. It's not what the American people are looking for."

Powell said he does not plan to campaign for Obama.

Following the interview, Powell told reporters outside NBC's Washington studio that McCain "is essentially going to execute the Republican agenda, the orthodoxy of the Republican agenda with a new face and a maverick approach to it, and he'd be quite good at it, but I think we need more than that. I think we need a generational change. I think Senator Obama has captured the feelings of the young people of America and is reaching out in a more diverse, inclusive way across our society."

Powell said that the Republican focus on William Ayers and Obama's religious affiliations were damaging America's image abroad.

"Those kinds of images going out on al Jazeera are killing us around the world," he said. "And we have got to say to the world, it doesn't make any difference who you are or what you are, if you're an American you're an American. And this business of, for example a congresswoman from Minnesota going around saying let's examine all congressmen to see who is pro America or not pro America, we have got to stop this kind of non-sense and pull ourselves together and remember that our great strength is in our unity and diversity. That really was driving me."

Powell continued, defending Obama against McCain's latest charge that the Democrat's policies are quasi-socialist:

We can't judge our people and hold our elections on that kind of basis. Yes, that kind of negativity troubled me. And the constant shifting of the argument, I was troubled a couple of weeks ago when in the middle of the crisis the campaign said 'we're going to go negative,' and they announced it. 'We're going to go negative and attack his character through Bill Ayers.' Now I guess the message this week is we're going to call him a socialist. Mr. Obama is now a socialist, because he dares to suggest that maybe we ought to look at the tax structure that we have. Taxes are always a redistribution of money. Most of the taxes that are redistributed go back to those who pay them, in roads and airports and hospitals and schools. And taxes are necessary for the common good. And there's nothing wrong with examining what our tax structure is or who should be paying more or who should be paying les, and for us to say that makes you a socialist is an unfortunate characterization that I don't think is accurate.

Appearing on Fox News Sunday, John McCain said he had a "respectful disagreement" with Powell's decision, but "this doesn't come as a surprise."

Aside from their shared history as Republican military men, Powell's endorsement is significant due to the fact that McCain has repeatedly singled him out for lavish praise. In a July New York Times interview, McCain described the former secretary of state and Joint Chiefs chairman as "a man who I admire as much as any man in the world, person in the world" when answering a question in which Powell was not brought up. Meanwhile, near the same time as that interview, McCain was reportedly considering Powell as a potential running mate.

McCain's high opinion of Powell as one of the "most credible, most respected" men in America is not merely an election-year spasm, either. When asked in 2001 if he would have chosen Powell for a Cabinet position had he succeeded in his first presidential run, McCain said "oh, yes." During two December 2000 appearances on NBC Nightly News, McCain described himself as "exuberant" over Powell's selection as secretary of state, which he predicted would secure "a beneficial effect on the conduct of American foreign policy." McCain added in another TV appearance that President Bush was "blessed" to have Powell working for him. In 2003, when Powell faced criticism from Newt Gingrich over his plan to travel to Syria, it was McCain who rose to the secretary's defense on MSNBC's Hardball, when he said: "I think it's appropriate that Colin Powell is going there."

Even at the end of Powell's somewhat frustrating tenure in George W. Bush's inner circle of policy advisers, McCain praised his overall performance, saying: "When he took the helm at the State Department nearly four years ago, I was confident that Secretary Powell would lead with honor and distinction ... I have not been disappointed." And in a CBS interview during this year's primary race, McCain suggested that one of President Bush's chief failures "was not to listen more to our military leadership, including people like General Colin Powell."

The praise has not only run in one direction, as Powell described McCain the "toughest man I've ever met" last year. But in the end, what sounded like a compliment could have been the beginning of the end. During this summer's conflict between Russia and Georgia, Powell criticized McCain for being, in essence, too mindlessly tough. When asked by CNN's what McCain meant when he said "We are all Georgians now," Powell demurred. "One candidate said that, and I'll let the candidate explain it for himself."

When pressed for further opinion, Powell distanced himself from McCain's staunchly pro-Georgian line. "The fact of the matter is that you have to be very careful in a situation like this not just to leap to one side or the other until you take a good analysis of the whole situation," Powell said, tamping down the rush to herald the rise of a new Soviet threat.